How GDP May Propel Boise Real Estate

Businesses increased investment, helping out GDP, and the economy grew at a 5.9% interest helping reinforce the idea that the recession is coming to an end. Based on this good news, the Boise real estate market will be buoyed by the gains in economy.

It was estimated that Gross Domestic Product would increase at a clip of 5.7%, instead it grew at a rate of 5.9% according to the Commerce Department, based on fourth quarter financial numbers. The latest numbers reflect the most rapid pace since midyear of 2003. The fastest quarter was the third quarter which posted a robust 2.2% growth rate. Rewinding time to the 2003 numbers would definitely help the Boise real estate market.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 5.7% rate in the October-December period. It is looking like the first quarter of 2010 will not continue in the rapid pace of recovery shown throughout 2009, which had posted the most impressive numbers since the worst financial catastrophe since the Great Depression. Even thought consumer spending and the housing markets were down, the fact that businesses increased investment in software and equipment helped add some steadiness to the economy and allowed business to liquidate bloated inventories. This wan’t just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.

Stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.9%, rather than the 2.2% pace estimated last month, indicating growth was not being driven by demand. Inventory sales amounts were alarmingly reduced from $33.5 billion to around $16.9 billion in the final quarter. Throughout the latter portion of the summer, inventory sales plummeted to $139 billion. The inventory changes alone were responsible for a 3.88% difference in GDP. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987. A big lift came to the Boise real estate market through the liquidation of these extra inventories by construction companies.

As a whole, the year 2009 featured the most dramatic decrease in GDP, at 2.4%, since the post World War II recovery of 1946. Even consumer spending projections had to be adjusted downward from 2% in January to the actual number of 1.7% increase. In the preceding quarter, the federal government “cash for clunkers” program lifted GDP by 2.8%, which was obviously a short term fix for a sector of the economy. In the fourth quarter, consumer spending – which normally accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity — contributed 1.23 percentage points to GDP. In such a financial crisis, the Boise real estate market is not independent of the national trends.

The fourth quarter GDP numbers increased, despite a slumping commercial real estate market, due to significant investment in software and required equipment by businesses. Estimates for business investment came in at 2.9%, but rose dramatically to 6.5%, much higher than expected. In just the three months prior, it had slumped by just under 6%. With everyone watching the housing markets, projections of 5.7% were down graded to about 5% in the fourth quarter. It had grown at an 18.9% pace in the third quarter. On the back of stronger exports and imports, which left a trade gap adding .3% to the GDP, the fourth quarter boasted better numbers than otherwise anticipated. With GDP factoring in to nearly every facet of business, Boise real estate is not independent.

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